Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ef79b43131acb502b560ba056c5cb573f7878ab27b9462677b0a98cc23623ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 708.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.7 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 591.59$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.53 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 11c | 532.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 313.87$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.61 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 6c | 285.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 26c | 273.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 49c | 230.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 196.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.22 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 36c | 190.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.42 | 441 | 39%172 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 179.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 172.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.79 | 1,843 | 27.5%506 W · 1,337 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 161.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 154.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 33c | 150.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 148.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 135.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 128.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 118.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 108.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 22c | 101.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 99.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 39c | 96.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 79c | 87.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 87.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed No | 59c | 81.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 77.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 74.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 553 | 42.9%237 W · 316 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 15c | 71.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 876 | 47.9%420 W · 456 L | +40.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 70.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 39c | 63.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 63.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 76c | 60.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 57c | 59.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 58.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 64c | 56.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 28c | 50.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 465 | 47.3%220 W · 245 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 73c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 47.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 46.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 78c | 46.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 58c | 45.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 175 | 34.9%61 W · 114 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 43.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 44c | 43.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 62c | 42.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 75c | 40.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 27c | 39.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 39.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb6…4a6dbacked Yes | 66c | 39.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…d91dbacked Yes | 78c | 37.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 62c | 36.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 79c | 36.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 67c | 35.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c585backed Yes | 45c | 35.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 80c | 33.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 43c | 32.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 32.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 32.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 62c | 31.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked Yes | 78c | 29.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 196 | 44.9%88 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 38c | 28.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked No | 70c | 26.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 76c | 25.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 70c | 23.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 57c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 65c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…e65fbacked No | 77c | 18.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 66c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 17.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 70c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…b738backed No | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…d22dbacked No | 74c | 14.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.