Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc45eb3c8fd6be7ae39291960deb5b52ad0e484f7493fff002964879b352fa73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,189 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 2c | 829.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 384.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.96 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 363.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 353.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 15c | 327.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.83 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 275$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 59c | 256.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 254.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 15c | 237.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.41 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 22c | 190.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 173.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 157.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 18c | 153.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 144.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 140.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 16c | 130.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 128.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 45c | 122.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…321bbacked Yes | 15c | 116.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 22c | 114.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 111$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 75c | 94.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 89.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 84.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 19c | 77.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…cf12backed No | 44c | 73.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 64c | 70.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed Yes | 17c | 59.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 67c | 48.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 43.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…8efebacked Yes | 42c | 42.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 42.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 47c | 40.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 80c | 29.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 29.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 26.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 76c | 20.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…a758backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 80c | 18.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 69c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 76c | 14.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.