Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e824a38948398e737d3eeec10cc3f9427fe84805924b248c3e8b8fbc1e28ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,996 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 2c | 607.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 291.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…c94dbacked Yes | 12c | 228.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 220.65$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 212.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 185.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 32c | 158.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 158.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 132.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 123.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 27c | 119.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 72c | 102.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 29c | 95.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 90.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 65.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 63.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 31c | 51.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 49.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 43.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…edbfbacked Yes | 29c | 39.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…a929backed No | 70c | 39.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 39.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…321bbacked No | 70c | 34.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 35c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…13dfbacked No | 71c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.