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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c1,274$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.356,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No21c1,214$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4459021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No7c783.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed No9c751.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.175853.4%31 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+188.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes20c587.5$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.468,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes43c483.72$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c433.79$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.227,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes32c375.58$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5315570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes49c350$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.53842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes64c307.86$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6248331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No9c271$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0918452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f0…7a4cbacked Yes68c263.9$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes57c257.44$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…719bbacked Yes26c253.59$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+322.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes12c251.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes27c246.65$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.851833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4901…e58abacked Yes66c243.87$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb2…f30bbacked Yes42c224.71$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c214.5$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.034,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c213.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes76c213.82$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.812556%14 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes23c213.62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5711146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes18c200$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1642846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes16c199.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes13c193.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No41c183.85$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.681,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e7…e373backed No8c178.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No15c170.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.931,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No71c169.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5911731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7c5d…5a0fbacked Yes62c168.44$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c160.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.331,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c149.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes12c149.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6136123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c144.13$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.131,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes22c142.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c142$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No75c138.18$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes21c137.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes13c137.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6919848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes17c135.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6620835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked No72c133.7$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.381729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c126.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes24c125.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.398727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes19c120.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.831,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c116.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes51c115.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2561659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9033…bd50backed Yes61c114.79$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.31250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes29c114.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.823630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes31c110.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0434219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes15c107.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.61,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c106.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.082,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed Yes30c105.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.078551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes21c104.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.522028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes14c99.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.991,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes50c99.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.588872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes14c99.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4344147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes52c96.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.851540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes45c94.48$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.161,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes15c93.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.11926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc33…6c65backed Yes11c93.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ad…8db9backed Yes21c93.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.034344.2%19 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f2b…523abacked Yes28c89.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124b…a12cbacked Yes73c86.37$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes15c84.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3133232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30e3…700dbacked Yes56c82.96$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.131060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No80c80$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.81,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes19c74.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0519123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No62c72.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.081,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7088…0086backed Yes16c71.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.059534.7%33 W · 62 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe945…5fbbbacked Yes37c70.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.831040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.89349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e18…064cbacked Yes66c68.8$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.071060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e90…f911backed Yes26c66.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+315.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes21c64.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7659440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No33c63.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7326327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x060a…fa8fbacked Yes22c61.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes21c54.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes21c53.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.36719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58af…1250backed Yes24c51.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…6916backed Yes76c50.91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes54c49.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No80c48.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8429653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab8…6743backed No76c47.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No45c42.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9116550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No48c42.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2121848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721c…a939backed No76c38.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda18…4282backed No78c36.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.562846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes58c34.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes66c32.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.320144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No80c30.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe208…e98cbacked Yes55c28.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74551.1%23 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No76c27.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8716651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes58c26.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1314632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff9d…362dbacked No80c24.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick76cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes55c23.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7412632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.