TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5e5…485abacked Yes0c10,312$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.311533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes1c6,506$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.173333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6b…a179backed Yes0c4,536$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes2c2,194$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.671,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes1c2,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes1c1,878$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.142,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes1c1,490$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf74…d478backed No76c559.28$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.79955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick75cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c508.22$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.777,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c364.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes26c355.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.557146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c257.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.396,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes24c240.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.551,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c233.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b7…177fbacked Yes16c218.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.954035%14 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No77c215.77$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8120172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes19c193.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes25c186.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.74337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c170.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.481,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes23c159.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7314926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes11c155.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.775628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c142.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.791,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e3…5d22backed No76c138.3$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.626764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8171…66a5backed Yes18c137.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.484526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes24c136.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8422028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes20c115.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4211146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes18c115.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7213322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed Yes33c111.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.347936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes26c110.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8725447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes26c109.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8818242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes27c108.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9513943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes22c103.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.063435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes27c103.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.668436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No79c100.19$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5331868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes20c99.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9911220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No76c99.75$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.585981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18d6…0badbacked Yes24c97.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c96.72$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5f…fc90backed Yes25c96.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.051353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c96.02$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.72,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes14c93.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0745236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes25c90.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.142123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No79c87.13$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.39747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No80c81.78$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes23c78.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4714632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked No77c76.26$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.652050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200b…722ebacked Yes18c76.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes20c73.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes20c69.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc236…aba9backed Yes20c69.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes21c65.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.825139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes22c64.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes30c64.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.252,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes26c63.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4231029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c61.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No79c59.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes21c58.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.148111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c55.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02f…24aabacked Yes28c53.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes22c53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.928143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c52.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes20c50.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.071520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No78c49.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9729653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c49.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No75c48.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.148551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e8…90bfbacked Yes30c46.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No79c45.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.558969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No77c45.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.275773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b6…3a7ebacked Yes31c45.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961625%4 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c42.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No79c40.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3114251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes29c37.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.927326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No78c35.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8db…8facbacked No70c35.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb4…98e9backed No77c33.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No80c30.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0921676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4403…eb44backed No76c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.353100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53dd…96e4backed No72c27.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No73c27.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.431,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No78c26.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6522675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c23.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.442,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No75c22.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6715477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No77c22.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No76c21.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2826169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No78c21.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6816575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa511…010bbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052650%13 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No76c19.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.629779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No76c19.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6176371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c19.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.911,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a96…b81abacked No70c18.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.466949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No78c17.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9810444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…0866backed No78c16.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.661376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No78c16.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.546464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No78c15.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.417771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No78c15.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3840777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.