TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x477e…7d74backed Yes0c38,623$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.622317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No79c4,318$3,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.6748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes65c1,010$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.273644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No33c965.83$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.1231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c943.73$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes80c721.74$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.2931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4901…e58abacked No66c712.34$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.73757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes69c701.72$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.4527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No19c677.76$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.28042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f2…33e5backed No17c668.54$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.462213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked Yes66c600$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No38c521.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.9319152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes65c474.89$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes61c436.32$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.591,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No66c435.96$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes55c404.51$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.3965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes70c366.95$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.741833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No23c302.7$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No67c293.57$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes62c292.15$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0111146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No38c278.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.144,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes32c275.23$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.324921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No18c270.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2733450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes61c244.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes76c244.04$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.341662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No41c231.25$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.192458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No38c226.77$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.55735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No60c212.01$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fb2…f30bbacked No76c208.26$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.581361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c199.98$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad2e…95f1backed Yes48c198.01$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+76.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes60c197.39$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.214337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No27c176.31$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.311,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes80c172.7$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1154143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf136…f66abacked Yes80c170.49$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.075236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes75c170.45$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.661929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.662,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No16c163.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.331,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No46c155.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.353,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No25c151.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5132818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes44c148.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.861,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No43c147.6$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.681,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed No22c142.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No22c141.77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3218452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2426327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes37c136.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.861,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c133.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No17c131.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes58c129.87$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3313930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3868…e317backed No24c126.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes44c119.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.771926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes59c116.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.413324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No42c116.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.912,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes59c116.18$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.098250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No40c115.72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes36c114.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6261659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No46c103.65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.372065%13 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes39c102.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3611938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…2477backed Yes75c101.89$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e3…700dbacked Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked No24c99.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.993842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5b…aea3backed No46c99.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.996738.8%26 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No16c99.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.961833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No23c99.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.712846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes49c99.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes79c98.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.312735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2b…523abacked Yes48c98.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes70c97.04$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5f…fc90backed No49c96.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.321353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes70c96.08$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.932352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes48c96.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.988727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes49c95.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.222240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes61c94.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.683435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No36c92.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked Yes74c92.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.152138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No35c89.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.658551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes34c86.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes34c86.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes56c84.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…719bbacked No22c83.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+322.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes55c79.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.733441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ab8…6743backed Yes79c79.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.091030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No49c79.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5930859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No14c79.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8444147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked No35c74.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes64c73.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.311241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x124b…a12cbacked Yes68c72.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.111154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No40c72.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.262,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed No66c70.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7612632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes66c70$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.55050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes65c66.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.231,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes73c65.65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes46c63.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No47c63.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.361,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes48c61.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8329640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No28c61.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5413959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes68c60.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.316336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c5d…5a0fbacked Yes55c60.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.