World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 80% and 85%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8cff7ee30fce46fd273976bc6799503a24265e7e411e076920ad1fd32a6951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,654 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 15c | 1,005$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 28c | 873$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 17c | 644.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed No | 72c | 523$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 6c | 441.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 79c | 337$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 72c | 251$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 11c | 141.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 72c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 80% and 85%?this page
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be 90% or higher?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 65% and 70%?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 70% and 75%?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 75% and 80%?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 85% and 90%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.