World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 65% and 70%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f2c16b4f259c7f7f768ca64cd836ba634fda138e4969aa8ea648b0e0a50cfa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,828 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 14c | 794$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 9c | 295.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 7c | 190.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…501cbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…b6cbbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…b420backed Yes | 39c | 68.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 53.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff84…899cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 65% and 70%?this page
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be 90% or higher?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 70% and 75%?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 75% and 80%?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 80% and 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be between 85% and 90%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.