AI · resolved market
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc49487996b94574c24dfc6250a0dfe01815485c679784822fee6a359022cae0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a33…fa9fbacked Yes | 10c | 7,279$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 5,111$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.37 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 4c | 4,618$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…1c41backed Yes | 46c | 3,700$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad91…ed5bbacked No | 54c | 3,700$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 6c | 2,642$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,156$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.23 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…65c8backed Yes | 16c | 2,150$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…ea52backed Yes | 3c | 1,886$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 11c | 1,847$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,510$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,508$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,376$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 12c | 1,228$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,194$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,126$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 1,015$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,008$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 3c | 994.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 859$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 693.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…256cbacked Yes | 3c | 673.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…3908backed Yes | 4c | 655.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 630.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…ef73backed Yes | 16c | 582.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…4e6bbacked Yes | 12c | 550.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 514.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…1687backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 485.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 9c | 482.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 472.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd495…98cfbacked Yes | 12c | 468.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 4c | 410.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 386.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…4feabacked Yes | 7c | 351.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…0345backed Yes | 15c | 328.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 314.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 5c | 296.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 295.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 15c | 280.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…c8c7backed Yes | 12c | 273.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 8c | 267.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 250.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…da52backed Yes | 8c | 245.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 7c | 201$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0d91backed Yes | 11c | 185.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 178.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 152.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 10c | 149.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 144.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…7c5abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 11c | 121.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…dd50backed Yes | 13c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…dce9backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5b…b822backed Yes | 17c | 71.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…28a7backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…3fb0backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.