Music · resolved market
Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be less than 50k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac433cb9099188b10d0629139ec94dba5955da32f7cd71e42e4e76fc58bb4f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,379 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 21c | 1,294$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 79c | 992$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 75c | 667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 25c | 616$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 79c | 302$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 55c | 118.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 113.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 69c | 76.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8f…c2b7backed Yes | 51c | 58.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 49.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be less than 50k?this page
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be at least 155k?No won
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be between 125k and 140k?No won
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be between 50k and 65k?No won
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be between 65k and 80k?No won
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be between 80k and 95k?No won
- Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be between 95k and 110k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.