AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a6853be52ce7665fd8d88d4bccdc9d45a2567f9c352a4833afed4f0fa9f7d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,190 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 2c | 4,732$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 70c | 847.19$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…3210backed Yes | 26c | 830.44$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 12c | 802$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 12c | 795$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 12c | 777$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 659$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 3c | 538.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 21c | 448.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 22c | 444$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f88…ddc9backed Yes | 23c | 388.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8033backed Yes | 30c | 333.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 279.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…f565backed Yes | 23c | 105.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…e1c6backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 11c | 99.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…6ba1backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 39.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…9ba4backed No | 77c | 32.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…fd72backed No | 76c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 80c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?this page
- Will CBS Sports App: Scores & News be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will NCAA March Madness Live be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.