AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57512f7d2071af37391687a3aecdaac37a53a6ba116d485c4ae18509c16c362a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,224 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 13c | 864.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 13c | 603.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 80c | 584.3$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed Yes | 66c | 227.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 164.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 16c | 153.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 151.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 120.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,371 | 6.8%93 W · 1,278 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 108$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 736 | 35.6%262 W · 474 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 84.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…6865backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 34c | 69.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 49c | 54.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked No | 48c | 42.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…161dbacked Yes | 71c | 42.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 39.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…dc28backed Yes | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?this page
- Will CBS Sports App: Scores & News be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Yes won
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will NCAA March Madness Live be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.