Movies · resolved market
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc8ff4cc211e124cbaccb5bd7ad504f67845806e978eb384d82eecbf91a26b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,185 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 60c | 638$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 40c | 538$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 55c | 390.16$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 17c | 248$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 17c | 244$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 17c | 131.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 36c | 105.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…2d8abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d2afbacked No | 49c | 89.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 49c | 50.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 57c | 29.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.