TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1247…ab99backed No38c14,254$5,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes69c4,843$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.584843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab56…2da0backed No9c4,339$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes70c2,600$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7711250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes72c2,573$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.891838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1501618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes64c2,352$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.722937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes52c1,528$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.753119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc012…6180backed No44c1,177$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes57c1,057$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.891643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed No39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes67c966.81$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.441926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa63e…1b97backed No40c754.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No18c650$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d4…2b0dbacked Yes67c634.9$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed Yes70c605.19$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.281850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes61c600$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No6c598.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.627435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes80c579$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.011250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No44c575.26$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf839…33c5backed No30c563.53$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.78771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+65.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No25c516.03$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.45616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a4…1c0abacked Yes78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c494.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.621644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No26c459.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.64845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6b6…8d65backed No44c453.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes73c449.99$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.56841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked No13c438.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes68c423.5$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.473360.6%20 W · 13 L+8.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+83.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes66c408.91$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x992f…c9edbacked No23c386.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No32c381.7$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-52.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No4c378.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.151546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes66c375.31$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.344438.6%17 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes62c348.82$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.553953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes77c343.15$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.561471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed No27c331.11$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd7d…4d56backed No18c316.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes75c299.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…3f99backed No8c265.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked No8c244.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes77c223.4$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.881656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes63c209.06$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.571050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes54c201.3$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+128%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4624…9441backed No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1978…a10fbacked No31c199.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No27c188.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.092937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb20…cfa5backed No8c177.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…0b89backed No19c159.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ce…9571backed No19c137.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes79c126.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.93850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc18a…a754backed Yes61c122$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf21a…1e6cbacked No22c120$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce8…3352backed No15c103.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-60.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf38f…4f52backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.24560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252040%8 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…1529backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2f…279ebacked No37c99.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked No22c96.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No14c85.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed No24c84.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb186…310cbacked No30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes79c82.9$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.531850%9 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes72c79.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.142147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f4…e02fbacked Yes62c78.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed No40c75.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+455.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes71c75.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.132725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e5…cb25backed No28c71.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes57c70.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.531643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed No33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24b6…e524backed No30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…6718backed No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73a6…8924backed Yes64c46.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1149…6af0backed No35c42.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.612425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes80c34.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.884839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf85c…3f74backed Yes62c32.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+181.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.414100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf91e…d074backed Yes71c28.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe129…f8e4backed Yes63c24.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+145.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes80c18.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.626040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes80c16.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+144.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.