Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a5ab005bbd57678cf4bb0efddf5a388786b2b4e1d8c2f7cae598b3fad05f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1247…ab99backed No | 15c | 4,943$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 1,476$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 76c | 603.15$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 69c | 539.98$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed No | 25c | 506.02$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 14c | 452.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 16c | 387.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…6549backed No | 31c | 319.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked No | 15c | 291.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…09f4backed No | 22c | 277.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…2b0dbacked No | 27c | 263.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 8c | 263.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 254.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 77c | 234.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 80c | 200.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…706bbacked No | 14c | 174.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 172.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…173bbacked No | 12c | 150.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…c8d1backed No | 15c | 135.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6ce1backed No | 36c | 102.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…c963backed No | 10c | 101.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…6180backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 15c | 89.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked No | 13c | 88.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 79c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed No | 34c | 74.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…341bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 21c | 65.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked No | 17c | 65.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 75c | 60.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 35c | 56.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…9964backed Yes | 77c | 48.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Yes | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…a26dbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 71c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eea…0f9cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 22?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?Yes won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.