Earnings · resolved market
Will Lyft (LYFT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cab2ea03d40de3168d92d72b6fcef6376cc3745f3ae856f732461a9fe48d94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 0c | 25,287$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…614fbacked Yes | 60c | 654.76$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…8d1cbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 31c | 449.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 63c | 399.98$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 35c | 399.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 66c | 352.96$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 65c | 310.77$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 35c | 286.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 204.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 72c | 199.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 186.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 65c | 184.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 171.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 40c | 141.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 61c | 119.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7479backed No | 42c | 115.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…6a7bbacked No | 32c | 100.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 33c | 88.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 64.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked No | 59c | 51.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 39c | 51.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 65c | 48.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…bb54backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 35c | 41.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 66c | 37.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 33c | 35.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…d8d5backed No | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +180%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9bf5backed Yes | 61c | 32.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…d983backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…52eabacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 40c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 70c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Yes | 69c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…5323backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b943backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2e…0e6cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.