Weather · resolved market
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c9a5817bc945d71686ed859417a1d26bd63f0e416f8b21156fa1c87f05f77a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 4c | 8,090$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +306.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,429$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8381…29f5backed Yes | 16c | 3,213$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,048$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,012$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcd…68edbacked Yes | 2c | 2,176$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3658…5c34backed Yes | 5c | 1,853$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…e651backed Yes | 8c | 1,645$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d36fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,568$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 15c | 1,476$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,471$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,419$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +407.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,266$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…6edabacked Yes | 4c | 1,195$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…818fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,162$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…d882backed Yes | 10c | 1,076$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,057$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8e…b63abacked Yes | 14c | 1,002$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…246abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca7…49dcbacked Yes | 8c | 993.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…271dbacked Yes | 4c | 992.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1331backed Yes | 7c | 949.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7372…e4c6backed Yes | 2c | 635.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…99cfbacked Yes | 13c | 540.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…7374backed Yes | 13c | 507.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd488…4bb3backed Yes | 7c | 490.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes | 11c | 474.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 6c | 434.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…287cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…86afbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 296.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…d63bbacked Yes | 6c | 247.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 75c | 245.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes | 8c | 245.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…f36ebacked Yes | 10c | 234.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…3a5cbacked Yes | 7c | 233.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…552abacked Yes | 13c | 204.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 201.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…35a2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…0902backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…0ed6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…b57bbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 9c | 149.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked No | 70c | 120.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 17c | 115.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…1471backed Yes | 10c | 100.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…bac9backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7eb…1d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…00f3backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…115bbacked Yes | 50c | 58.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…b6aabacked Yes | 30c | 53.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed No | 45c | 49.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.