Olympics · resolved market
Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21381e1df184460ffb9bab6aa53f702c27ed21897d74cee355526f26d79ef5a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $399,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 1c | 110,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 8c | 30,031$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 6c | 14,878$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.92 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 7c | 11,461$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…c238backed No | 8c | 11,039$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…730bbacked No | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 8c | 9,614$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.12 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 6c | 8,795$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 16c | 7,406$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 4c | 6,476$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.18 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed No | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 15c | 4,479$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 7c | 4,091$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.85 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed No | 12c | 3,612$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…3f54backed No | 6c | 3,221$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 8c | 3,172$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.77 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a55…6a8ebacked No | 32c | 2,591$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed No | 8c | 2,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed No | 7c | 2,397$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 11c | 1,821$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…3664backed No | 7c | 1,619$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed No | 10c | 1,579$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cf…e53fbacked No | 10c | 1,464$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 9c | 1,368$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 21c | 1,354$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 6c | 1,281$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 7c | 1,118$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 6c | 866.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…84c7backed No | 14c | 849.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd25…21d7backed No | 7c | 705.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…0748backed No | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked No | 15c | 675$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 7c | 649.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…4700backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed No | 9c | 611.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Yes | 74c | 609.89$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 69c | 505$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf76…5634backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…9f23backed No | 8c | 419.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…99ccbacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 6c | 397$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 8c | 388.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 19c | 378.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…a2ffbacked No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked No | 8c | 274.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc0…cf33backed No | 8c | 248$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 67c | 224.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750f…8c52backed No | 23c | 213.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked No | 8c | 207.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…2f62backed No | 8c | 168.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 7c | 166.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…c188backed No | 8c | 163.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…0672backed No | 9c | 159.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…1f79backed No | 7c | 158.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…7ccebacked No | 8c | 157.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…05febacked No | 13c | 153.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…d65dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Yes | 80c | 136.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea0…2931backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ee…cc62backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…24fdbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…a11bbacked No | 9c | 120.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 79c | 112.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…9205backed No | 10c | 112.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3581…6b53backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a98…a77fbacked Yes | 75c | 40.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 75c | 38.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…e058backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball?this page
- Will Australia win Gold in Women's Basketball?No won
- Will Belgium win Gold in Women's Basketball?No won
- Will China win Gold in Women's Basketball?No won
- Will France win Gold in Women's Basketball?No won
- Will Japan win Gold in Women's Basketball?No won
- Will another counrty win Gold in Women's Basketball?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.