Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3df67b271319baec64436ea872e8214c623b50d621cd21491fb0b582358607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 38c | 1,461$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 60c | 1,424$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 43c | 800$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 76c | 786.26$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.61 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 71c | 761.92$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.48 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 39c | 486.48$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.88 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 39c | 394.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked No | 44c | 344.39$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 56c | 338.95$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…8a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 303.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5a…c318backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3431…2fe2backed No | 56c | 232.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 59c | 187.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…73d8backed Yes | 55c | 181.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…2d67backed Yes | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 59c | 166.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2867…84debacked Yes | 42c | 162.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 49c | 152.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 36c | 152$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…b205backed No | 69c | 144.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 69c | 141.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 60c | 134.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 130.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked No | 41c | 115.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 60c | 84.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e2…20fabacked No | 58c | 84.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 76.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 30c | 74.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2264…3c0fbacked No | 44c | 70.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 41c | 68.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…f916backed Yes | 74c | 67.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 62c | 64.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 68c | 63.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…61d4backed Yes | 69c | 62.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 27c | 54.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 53.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…5883backed No | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…aa2cbacked No | 40c | 50.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 30c | 46.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…aa65backed No | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…020bbacked Yes | 30c | 44.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 30c | 42.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 42c | 40.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 46c | 39.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8fa4backed No | 70c | 37.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e67…bebdbacked No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…d89abacked No | 57c | 31.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…fb10backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 60c | 21.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 52c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…6ca6backed Yes | 62c | 16.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.