Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x499d303522e9b822946f6aae066d083914bf2fb8e18abc891055590749501692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb98…6d3cbacked No | 0c | 6,915$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 59c | 1,853$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.3 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…9c0cbacked No | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 8c | 1,277$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…e02bbacked No | 5c | 720.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 3c | 624.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 43c | 461.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 66c | 334.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 49c | 285.36$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 48c | 199.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 37c | 199.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b70…b0f7backed No | 40c | 173.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 153.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 10c | 135.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 20c | 119.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 53c | 103.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…73d8backed Yes | 55c | 99.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed No | 36c | 55.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 49c | 43.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 46c | 37.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 48c | 34.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 50c | 30.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Yes | 78c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…b9cabacked Yes | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…aa65backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91a0…c48cbacked Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.