Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb61560a42840ee9037b8b608628fcc8d5fa4c19bffdf71e2b8381318bc59df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,291 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 43c | 7,710$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 1c | 4,094$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +222.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 53c | 2,980$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 60c | 2,225$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,438$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 14c | 1,417$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed No | 25c | 935.67$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…dcb5backed No | 8c | 866.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 9c | 682.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 72c | 474.79$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 55c | 471.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 42c | 459.94$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7d…6746backed No | 22c | 333.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…86c3backed Yes | 73c | 325.26$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 286.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 49c | 285.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 46c | 222.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…e0e1backed Yes | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 10c | 204.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 199.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 28c | 188.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…31babacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 17c | 166.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 162.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 151.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed Yes | 60c | 142.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 22c | 128.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8289backed Yes | 61c | 111.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95d…da6dbacked No | 16c | 108.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 108.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed No | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…cae4backed Yes | 58c | 103.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +231.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 61c | 101.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 51c | 99.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 57c | 86.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 69.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…b14dbacked Yes | 51c | 64.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 48c | 63.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…61d4backed Yes | 69c | 51.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 43.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 27c | 43.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 41.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 47c | 40.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 34.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 40c | 30.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…d89abacked Yes | 36c | 29.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…2188backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…8fb0backed Yes | 80c | 13.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.