Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9104fc754ff767d211f1987e6a659ed0d98b5af0179e5df592b87bf5c4a9ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 4c | 83,948$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,310.14 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,017$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.93 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…e915backed Yes | 0c | 7,363$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,841$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…3134backed Yes | 15c | 1,995$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,876$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,512$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 8c | 1,465$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…2a29backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 6c | 980$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 2c | 926.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…0876backed Yes | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…9528backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…51a0backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…6d51backed Yes | 15c | 340.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…effebacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…d5b7backed No | 80c | 278.72$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x378e…2ca7backed Yes | 5c | 244.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…14febacked Yes | 25c | 211.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 15c | 208$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abb…6ac7backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085c…06e3backed Yes | 22c | 177.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes | 12c | 151.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…d3aebacked Yes | 14c | 138.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 74c | 126.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…bbabbacked Yes | 24c | 122.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…eadfbacked Yes | 22c | 119.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…0874backed Yes | 22c | 111.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…eb58backed Yes | 22c | 88.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 17c | 69.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.