Music · resolved market
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32821c03c1a785af6bea72291b578e722f02f7da80e204c42be3dee38694756f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 8,155$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.72 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,692$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 4c | 3,433$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 3,396$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 2,589$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…2bfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…943ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,171$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +643.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,028$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…643cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,892$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +612.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…65c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,825$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 2c | 1,742$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,661$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9200…1b9bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,651$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 4c | 1,592$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,557$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +240.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…95adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,498$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,451$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +509.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,450$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 1,301$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe892…05f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…4fa8backed Yes | 5c | 1,048$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…c9d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,035$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 7c | 999.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 3c | 993.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…a03dbacked Yes | 5c | 956.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…9ee3backed Yes | 4c | 950.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63f…0cd3backed Yes | 4c | 781.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…2d2cbacked Yes | 4c | 715.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…fc71backed Yes | 4c | 690.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…7b0abacked Yes | 4c | 684.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 7cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…3236backed Yes | 3c | 614.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 2c | 613.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 533.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes | 2c | 525.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…2bbbbacked Yes | 4c | 523.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 10c | 512.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 2c | 505.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 7c | 505.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…79c7backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…7ebabacked Yes | 4c | 495.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…9d6fbacked Yes | 4c | 492.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 2c | 482.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 436.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 394.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…07bdbacked Yes | 5c | 387.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Yes | 4c | 354.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9204…3c96backed Yes | 4c | 340.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…74e6backed Yes | 3c | 333.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed Yes | 6c | 315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 4c | 308.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…da46backed Yes | 5c | 308.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 6c | 299.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 4c | 286.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 285.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 5c | 267.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +1,062.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc10…ea75backed Yes | 6c | 239.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…2d49backed Yes | 16c | 63.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will All My Love (Coldplay) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.