Music · resolved market
Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3bc08c62413e6594164bc15aa07b282b22a6d7efc61cd69df92b63f4132289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f55…f767backed Yes | 1c | 22,146$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…79c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,747$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,202$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…aab8backed Yes | 1c | 3,359$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +240.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…c59dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,871$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…8accbacked Yes | 1c | 2,067$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 1c | 1,797$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…9ca6backed Yes | 1c | 1,464$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,284$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +509.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 39c | 1,079$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,066$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…94f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,060$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 917.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…7b0abacked Yes | 2c | 901.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 7cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…9e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 845.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63f…0cd3backed Yes | 5c | 828.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…e426backed Yes | 1c | 741.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f45…87e8backed Yes | 2c | 721.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1742…38e9backed Yes | 6c | 704.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +318.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…aebebacked Yes | 2c | 587.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 419.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…a03dbacked Yes | 4c | 416.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 6c | 299$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…0412backed Yes | 4c | 229.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will All My Love (Coldplay) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Anxiety (Doechii) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.