Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b2241e5023cf5a319268637c6b525b29527ff627fea24d7ff11bf8dbbbce515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 3,145$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.29 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 9c | 2,300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,409$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 6c | 822.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 695.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…76eabacked Yes | 18c | 544.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes | 13c | 399.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 393.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 11c | 390$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 12c | 320.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…a08ebacked Yes | 10c | 293.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1ea2backed Yes | 8c | 275.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…51e2backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 192.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 187.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 11c | 177.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 167.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…217cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…f72dbacked Yes | 13c | 141$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…b0a8backed Yes | 13c | 116.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 12c | 103.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe249…1623backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…78cbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…f0e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?this page
- Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by February 14, 2026?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.