Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2b1a4b37eedfd93471e3600e6a503391fd7953f6f5b6326c131beb99a93709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 6,791$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.54 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed Yes | 10c | 4,144$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…15c5backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +126%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed Yes | 8c | 2,010$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…0888backed Yes | 6c | 1,972$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,957$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,916$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,697$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,510$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 15c | 1,260$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 4c | 1,253$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…ae6ebacked Yes | 7c | 959.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 881.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 4c | 838.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 685.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 6c | 630$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 6c | 610.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 565.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 4c | 531.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 509.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 399.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 6c | 328.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 306.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 298.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…5821backed Yes | 7c | 292.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…f655backed Yes | 5c | 277.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 223.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…9f8fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 53c | 28.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 65c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine hits Moscow by February 28, 2026?this page
- Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by February 14, 2026?No won
- Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.