Middle East · resolved market
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6e28dcff1d4cfed3e169baefd383fb2ac39698d695baaf9eeb73f0e83cd6f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $666,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $605,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 36,573$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.24 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 7c | 23,159$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.55 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 6c | 19,357$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…8c7fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,353$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…d9a6backed Yes | 4c | 12,833$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,873$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.27 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 9c | 10,747$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,675$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 9,982$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.36 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 7c | 8,464$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +669.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8a…2f00backed Yes | 3c | 7,964$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…71e2backed Yes | 7c | 7,808$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb33…74f4backed Yes | 8c | 7,609$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…e218backed Yes | 3c | 6,884$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,803$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 4c | 6,657$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.32 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…6b7cbacked Yes | 7c | 6,509$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 6,415$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.85 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 5,688$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 5,346$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.42 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc957…243fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,156$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 5,011$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.03 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked Yes | 6c | 4,907$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 5c | 4,809$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +406.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…1388backed Yes | 4c | 4,591$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 7c | 4,297$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.27 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…9b82backed Yes | 5c | 4,101$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…fc36backed Yes | 5c | 3,975$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 3,968$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.23 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…442fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,949$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…5087backed Yes | 8c | 3,803$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.56per pick | 17cpaid | +549%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,792$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…4694backed Yes | 3c | 3,725$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,708$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…fac7backed Yes | 6c | 3,082$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,950$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 2,912$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 7c | 2,744$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…2fc6backed Yes | 4c | 2,620$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,578$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 2,404$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,307$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…2eddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,274$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a059backed Yes | 5c | 2,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fa…3248backed Yes | 8c | 2,023$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…8b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…4c4dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…1867backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,911$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 6c | 1,795$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,787$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,683$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,655$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb929…e94fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,562$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 5c | 1,551$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe070…9fb5backed Yes | 7c | 1,399$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 1,360$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…be41backed Yes | 9c | 1,347$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 1,296$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…0158backed Yes | 8c | 1,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441f…6740backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…9badbacked Yes | 8c | 1,203$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes | 4c | 1,183$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…f5cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,146$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…f117backed Yes | 8c | 1,145$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…894abacked Yes | 4c | 1,133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9109…3602backed Yes | 2c | 1,103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…84a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,033$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eac…a6d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…dc2bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +393.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…9879backed Yes | 5c | 992.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…d940backed Yes | 5c | 989$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 7c | 958.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…363bbacked Yes | 7c | 946.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c3…f5d8backed Yes | 2c | 930.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 6c | 900$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…0b4dbacked Yes | 4c | 892.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed Yes | 2c | 889.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 880$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 856.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 4c | 830$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…049dbacked Yes | 9c | 828.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked Yes | 10c | 805$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 2c | 798.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…629cbacked Yes | 7c | 746.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +446.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 5c | 730.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 8c | 724.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…112bbacked Yes | 10c | 722.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 6c | 681.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 7c | 673.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…c681backed Yes | 8c | 636.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.