Earnings · resolved market
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41010e119c211a44503b83370da7be84bd4e3eee48ee4e836b5958125735d62d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 18c | 1,450$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 1,373$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…1a3bbacked No | 11c | 750$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked No | 12c | 493$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 16c | 486.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 17c | 425.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked No | 12c | 416.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 10c | 399.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 8c | 390$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 14c | 363.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 13c | 253.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 10c | 217.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 13c | 200.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…1d38backed No | 11c | 199.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…8e6ebacked No | 12c | 183.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked No | 9c | 124.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1610…c11abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7f…2438backed No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a42…b1a5backed No | 13c | 81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 18c | 64.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.