Earnings · resolved market
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x098905fd3251ecbcf6f9b3d5925e54ded294f5f2a86fcb37c9580dab20a2a115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 77c | 2,422$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.89 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 74c | 2,015$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.8 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 1,459$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 26c | 1,456$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.05 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 22c | 691.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 302.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 23c | 286.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 285.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 74c | 270.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 73c | 253.42$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 239.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 79c | 237.95$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 226.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 26c | 176.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 75c | 156.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 153.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed No | 21c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…a10bbacked No | 34c | 115.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed No | 27c | 94.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa398…4cb6backed No | 24c | 70.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 50.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b6…4068backed No | 28c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…5307backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 32c | 34.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…01d6backed Yes | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e0…841abacked Yes | 77c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…aaedbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c361backed Yes | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.