Earnings · resolved market
Will PulteGroup (PHM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d5483197944695ffd2d533dca4d516ca811959cb9cec5927718a96754bc1624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 55c | 7,044$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.4 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 6c | 4,666$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,327$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…463cbacked Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 61c | 2,437$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.92 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 42c | 1,710$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.72 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 62c | 1,278$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.16 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 52c | 1,226$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.49 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 26c | 1,077$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.6 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 771.34$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.51 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…52d3backed Yes | 3c | 699.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 65c | 565.71$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 32c | 553.01$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed Yes | 43c | 518.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 34c | 512$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed Yes | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 46c | 392.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 56c | 372.69$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.13 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 13c | 349.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 38c | 335.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 299.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.99 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 79c | 253.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 43c | 230.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 229.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 23c | 220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 55c | 190.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 65c | 165.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 41c | 148.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 29c | 125.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 47c | 117.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…fd24backed Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 45c | 62.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 35c | 55.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 41c | 49.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 62c | 49.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8da4backed Yes | 34c | 46.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddac…71cebacked Yes | 43c | 40.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…4363backed Yes | 34c | 40.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…d36abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 35c | 35.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 49c | 34.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…7cbebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…e41fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 75c | 19.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.