Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa581ea970f9f1aa6a8e1c70b26c96236913a834bfc602a19a7309b4aa0d19b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 36c | 11,585$4,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,218.6 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 59c | 9,042$5,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,688.59 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 37c | 1,257$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.24 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 35c | 777$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.72 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 65c | 750$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 32c | 467.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 56c | 387$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cea…18a2backed No | 60c | 207.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…d367backed Yes | 40c | 202.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e7c0backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…b875backed No | 60c | 195.04$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked No | 38c | 145.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…8b3abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…fb2cbacked No | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04c…6833backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 62.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…6a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…cf1cbacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 56c | 36.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.