Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc16039e7adbcce034c61696d291b7dfd4666f42846bc8904a9618e89743978e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 19,814$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 33c | 11,322$3,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,707.78 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 13c | 6,092$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 65c | 2,134$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.43 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 25c | 1,776$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.67 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…d9e3backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,178$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…d37abacked Yes | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…9826backed No | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 57c | 634.9$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…beaebacked Yes | 13c | 630.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…9f89backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 76c | 303$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 17c | 291.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 74c | 219$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 60c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 23c | 175.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 22c | 158.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…f584backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e8…f483backed Yes | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…cf1cbacked No | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…5d43backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…5becbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…bfefbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3866…2d62backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 13-19?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.