Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90ff810aa865983d0e3b5ae54980ce52dc7c05d2b6e71b764585937e38647d57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 11c | 11,584$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…60bbbacked Yes | 5c | 6,656$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 76c | 6,109$4,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.36 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 2c | 4,072$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 0c | 2,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…a198backed Yes | 24c | 1,470$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 983$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf6…722ebacked Yes | 27c | 940.61$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…90bbbacked Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…0d66backed No | 73c | 761.5$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e671backed Yes | 43c | 699.68$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…d9e3backed Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…fe51backed No | 73c | 493.44$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…6c4dbacked Yes | 27c | 407.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked Yes | 28c | 400$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 68c | 243$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…adcebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…c799backed No | 73c | 177.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…63aebacked Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…0a7dbacked Yes | 27c | 164.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5731…b40cbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…e29abacked No | 73c | 77.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…2dc5backed No | 75c | 61.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 21c | 56.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…f8c3backed Yes | 42c | 56.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…8b3abacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…cf1cbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3866…2d62backed No | 72c | 36.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…f6f3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…1cccbacked Yes | 53c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…dbf0backed No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…a682backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…9392backed No | 75c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 October 13-19?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 13-19?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.