TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Henry Sildaru (EST) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,496 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6978…08d8backed Yes64c4,500$2,876 inLost-$2,8761030%3 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick67cpaid-42.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x04b0…000dbacked No36c2,970$1,075 inWon+$1,895.31050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+90.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed Yes64c450$288 inLost-$287.6570%0 W · 7 L-5.1wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6497…4b86backed Yes79c220.8$175 inLost-$17560%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes25c85.56$22 inLost-$21.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No74c79$59 inWon+$20.261625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd022…1856backed Yes58c28.81$17 inLost-$16.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbda…f10fbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost-$10771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.