Olympics · resolved market

Will Finley Melville Ives (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef929897d3df7eaef0898f7e0f1f27d640daf7804afb24c18d4c6869336498f9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,376 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x04b0…000dbacked Yes	8c	6,445$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.11	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+90.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c0b…17c3backed Yes	5c	2,500$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed Yes	2c	1,400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Yes	60c	543.98$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.39	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	39c	426$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.34	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked No	67c	312.82$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.82	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes	44c	275$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No	37c	206.23$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.93	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.19per pick	39cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	36c	173.31$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.68	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd022…1856backed Yes	68c	146.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Yes	68c	146.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd6d…c17fbacked Yes	71c	140.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	28c	130.9$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.25	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	63c	128.16$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.28	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes	64c	109$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.26	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed Yes	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5415…2a6ebacked No	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	30c	86.63$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.73	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa211…a283backed Yes	62c	81$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.22	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe665…79bbbacked Yes	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb858…7dc3backed Yes	63c	58.92$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	46c	57.46$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.75	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadd5…57eebacked Yes	58c	44$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No	36c	40.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.73	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	37c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c5e…677bbacked Yes	63c	39.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x137e…5292backed No	46c	36.71$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.71	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	34c	35.34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.46	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…ce76backed Yes	63c	31.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4723…5687backed Yes	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfef7…6660backed Yes	66c	30.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No	37c	27.62$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.38	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	63c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x434b…adb4backed Yes	61c	24.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.28per pick	72cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes	70c	15.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x455c…6de7backed Yes	71c	15.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Finley Melville Ives (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event