TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Alex Ferreira (USA) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,152 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x359f…fa80backed No4c1,800$66 inLost-$66427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…17c3backed No2c900$18 inLost-$18238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Yes79c464.91$366 inWon+$99.022944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca9…af95backed No12c113.28$13 inLost-$13.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0cfc…7f6bbacked No12c113.28$13 inLost-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94bc…8ce0backed No79c90$71 inLost-$71.12040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes21c80$17 inWon+$63.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No68c45.71$31 inLost-$31.082948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b36…f065backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No69c24.36$17 inLost-$16.878237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes50c21.23$11 inWon+$10.682123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.