Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76bbc4e1971bf6966b700649195d6e581ed83d0b39b975bd9efb4a04cc54fb9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,012$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 33c | 477.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.95 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 13c | 383.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.85 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 287.36$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 275.1$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 229.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 225.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 74c | 195.41$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.62 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 16c | 191.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 186.55$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 28c | 175.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 174.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.16 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 168.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 168.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 152.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 37c | 139.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 32c | 134.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 28c | 124.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 107.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 102.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 34c | 99.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 43c | 90.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 90.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 88.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 88.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 73c | 78.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 63c | 77.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 72c | 75.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 73.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 72c | 69.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 67.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 66.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 60.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 56.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 55.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 65c | 54.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 37c | 53.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 51.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 70c | 47.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 41.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 40.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 26c | 40.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…a14ebacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 37.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 28c | 37.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 37.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 36.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 51c | 31.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 66c | 28.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…f364backed Yes | 36c | 27.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…9d90backed No | 66c | 27.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 62c | 27.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 50c | 26.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 61c | 25.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 45c | 22.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 22.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 19.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.