Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0657c46abfedc4d8550610f76e2b0560d988b1e211a2758cecea9b691d156906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 2,591$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.42 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,213$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.41 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 619.18$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.78 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 57c | 561.48$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 386.5$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 40c | 380.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.42 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 289.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 287.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 53c | 283.68$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 29c | 260.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 216.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 50c | 208.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 79c | 196.71$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 177$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 168.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 41c | 167.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 163.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 62c | 144.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 68c | 144.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 71c | 139.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 134.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 50c | 127.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 31c | 121$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 64c | 116.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 51c | 112$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 51c | 108.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 102.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 46c | 98.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 89.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 39c | 86.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 82.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 75c | 81.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 41c | 73.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 69.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 68.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 45c | 63.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 63.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 63.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 52c | 57.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 18c | 57.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 34c | 57.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 76c | 55.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 52.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 42c | 50.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…5930backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 51c | 48.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 48.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 47.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 62c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 53c | 45.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 66c | 45.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 44.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 43.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 50c | 43.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 50c | 42.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 39.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 35.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 62c | 33.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 51c | 32.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 59c | 29.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 49c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 72c | 28.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 61c | 27.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 23.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 59c | 23.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 23.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 53c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.