TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Real Madrid CFof FC Bayern München, Real Madrid CF
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$452,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$516,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85f0…3f67backed Real Madrid CF56c151,368$84,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,698.741457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed FC Bayern München45c88,983$39,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,921.272030%6 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked FC Bayern München44c54,909$24,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,1603652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked FC Bayern München43c43,867$18,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,771.066657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Real Madrid CF55c36,149$19,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,267.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München37c22,320$8,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,160.461,95944.1%863 W · 1,096 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Bayern München44c16,490$7,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,235.159441.8%248 W · 346 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Real Madrid CF55c14,330$7,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,413.395066%33 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München31c8,396$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.641,48740.3%599 W · 888 L-7.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5a4…5780backed Real Madrid CF56c8,046$4,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Real Madrid CF57c7,316$4,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.998243.9%36 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Real Madrid CF63c5,890$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.6358248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed FC Bayern München44c5,239$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.5415847.5%75 W · 83 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a1a…e54ebacked Real Madrid CF58c5,067$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.56100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked FC Bayern München45c5,000$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.972540%10 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Real Madrid CF57c4,861$2,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.342250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c6c…4f80backed Real Madrid CF57c4,770$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed FC Bayern München54c3,972$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.054755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed4e…d2f2backed Real Madrid CF59c3,671$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked FC Bayern München44c3,295$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Real Madrid CF56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Real Madrid CF46c2,950$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed FC Bayern München43c2,858$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.0516349.1%80 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Real Madrid CF55c2,600$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1701266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked FC Bayern München43c2,513$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.621330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed FC Bayern München41c2,310$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.095248.1%25 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf4…43f7backed Real Madrid CF57c2,264$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed FC Bayern München45c2,257$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.648853.4%47 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed FC Bayern München45c2,214$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.498647.7%41 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Real Madrid CF57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9810845.4%49 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Real Madrid CF55c1,980$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.833455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed FC Bayern München44c1,953$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.32240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Real Madrid CF55c1,779$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.73839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Real Madrid CF56c1,739$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d1…bc55backed Real Madrid CF56c1,735$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa79…f645backed Real Madrid CF58c1,681$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.893625%9 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Real Madrid CF55c1,664$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc266…2f2fbacked Real Madrid CF63c1,553$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Real Madrid CF56c1,504$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.766659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+50.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Real Madrid CF55c1,460$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.781241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3a…65c8backed FC Bayern München43c1,316$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.81933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed FC Bayern München42c1,247$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.551275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+41.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Real Madrid CF63c1,221$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+72%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9a…a517backed FC Bayern München45c1,172$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.581050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed FC Bayern München43c1,130$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.826830.9%21 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked FC Bayern München44c1,101$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.171741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed FC Bayern München45c1,074$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Real Madrid CF55c1,067$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked FC Bayern München13c1,052$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.761136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c0…e4cabacked FC Bayern München44c1,010$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed FC Bayern München42c999.96$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.983938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed FC Bayern München13c998.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.82437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Real Madrid CF56c977.08$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.91757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Real Madrid CF55c976.57$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.461973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+69.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed FC Bayern München45c967$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.153250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Real Madrid CF58c938.59$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01d9…27a3backed Real Madrid CF57c914.33$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…e46cbacked Real Madrid CF56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3962030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Real Madrid CF55c884.55$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.051758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed FC Bayern München44c859.77$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.9110648.1%51 W · 55 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked FC Bayern München44c859.09$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.858259.8%49 W · 33 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Real Madrid CF57c854.56$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.462646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b9…f10cbacked Real Madrid CF57c854.56$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Real Madrid CF56c848.15$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.191369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f37…f96fbacked FC Bayern München11c848$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed FC Bayern München45c795.11$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.76352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed FC Bayern München45c787.89$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.473040%12 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked FC Bayern München45c752.33$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.552941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd411…7a18backed FC Bayern München18c750$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ea…a6cabacked FC Bayern München13c733.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe006…25a1backed Real Madrid CF59c730.38$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.27366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FC Bayern München45c705.17$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.235658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed FC Bayern München45c699.95$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.310852.8%57 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Real Madrid CF56c695.43$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf277…9a5fbacked FC Bayern München44c658.91$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.922157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed FC Bayern München45c646.37$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.877652.6%40 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked FC Bayern München45c646.17$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.897058.6%41 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7164…7ff7backed FC Bayern München45c644.67$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Real Madrid CF57c633.23$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.294766%31 W · 16 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+26.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed FC Bayern München44c632.71$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3929445.9%135 W · 159 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…d11dbacked Real Madrid CF56c625.89$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Real Madrid CF56c592.85$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.865364.2%34 W · 19 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Real Madrid CF56c552.72$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.742941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4eb…cde5backed Real Madrid CF78c549.35$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.631040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed FC Bayern München44c547.25$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.638938.2%34 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed FC Bayern München46c535.12$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.161931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Real Madrid CF56c521.57$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.492626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c5…0817backed FC Bayern München47c515$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed FC Bayern München43c511.43$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6241553%220 W · 195 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked FC Bayern München44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013349.6%66 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked FC Bayern München42c499.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.999840.8%40 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked FC Bayern München43c478.93$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.986553.8%35 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Real Madrid CF55c470.58$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.768354.2%45 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Real Madrid CF57c465.99$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.383548.6%17 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Real Madrid CF62c446.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1723637.3%88 W · 148 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed FC Bayern München43c444$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.922536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed FC Bayern München45c443.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.872657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Real Madrid CF56c438.12$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.772339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Real Madrid CF58c420.17$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.471560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked FC Bayern München45c418.75$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.445042%21 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.