Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32ad3b0e1744bcaf90a305457eb0be745f6bc985c0c3e5c0f389e1a7ab711840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 6c | 24,217$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Under | 8c | 14,172$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.76 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Under | 7c | 8,578$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 7c | 5,467$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.32 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Under | 7c | 4,119$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 8c | 1,906$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Under | 7c | 1,349$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 7c | 1,329$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 7c | 1,274$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Under | 7c | 814.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Under | 8c | 726.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 7c | 571.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Under | 9c | 547.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 7c | 539.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Under | 7c | 424.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Under | 8c | 354.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 7c | 324.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Under | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 9c | 283.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Under | 8c | 236.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…b832backed Under | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…ed74backed Under | 9c | 184.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 8c | 177.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Under | 8c | 145.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.