Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump apologize to Elon by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee7afd53220658986a5c451da446c2521a817531ff2dd4a84d57a26293727c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,202,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,010,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,202,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1016…64c1backed Yes | 1c | 339,390$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 0c | 86,458$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 2c | 51,676$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…3688backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4960…7a11backed Yes | 3c | 30,216$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9328…0e02backed Yes | 1c | 24,733$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…525abacked Yes | 2c | 21,503$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 19,489$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,878$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 1c | 14,044$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 13,197$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 1c | 13,174$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…4faabacked Yes | 0c | 12,192$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 1c | 12,067$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 10,077$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…767bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,037$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 10,009$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 2c | 9,332$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.1 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,216$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 1c | 9,101$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7670…5204backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,758$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Yes | 2c | 8,440$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 3c | 8,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.51 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 1c | 7,992$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…40b3backed Yes | 1c | 7,645$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,634$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 2c | 5,767$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb2…0a21backed Yes | 1c | 5,712$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 5,700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 2c | 5,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…66c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 3c | 4,129$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2457…2c8abacked Yes | 3c | 3,858$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…84d1backed Yes | 3c | 3,784$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…5c08backed Yes | 1c | 3,667$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…05f5backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…dc21backed Yes | 2c | 3,631$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,605$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…284abacked Yes | 1c | 3,587$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ffc6backed Yes | 2c | 3,279$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df6…7d5cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,892$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 2c | 2,053$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,935$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 3c | 1,871$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…129abacked Yes | 2c | 1,811$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…73a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,771$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 3c | 1,714$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…a9dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,390$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…01eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,284$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed Yes | 2c | 1,243$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…370fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…8bedbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 2c | 875$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd9…240ebacked Yes | 3c | 769.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…73edbacked Yes | 3c | 688.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 3c | 633.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…9120backed Yes | 2c | 527.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…a12abacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…d213backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 492.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed Yes | 3c | 481.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…1870backed Yes | 2c | 421.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…ab88backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…782ebacked Yes | 3c | 375.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…6da1backed Yes | 3c | 351.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.