NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G1: Will Haliburton score 18+ points against the Thunder?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea38d601b46ac073d16d24628e24d3c578423a0f560ccd7667c7be9d7770a44d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47b4…85f2backed Yes | 49c | 33,612$16,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,469.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04be…a60bbacked No | 51c | 33,612$17,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,469.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 52c | 7,563$3,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,651.14 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 46c | 4,400$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b60…380abacked Yes | 52c | 1,927$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…0c57backed Yes | 51c | 645$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…c295backed No | 49c | 435$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…db66backed Yes | 51c | 355$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…93c6backed Yes | 38c | 340.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…40fabacked No | 49c | 340$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 51c | 309$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 49c | 309$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Yes | 51c | 206.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 52c | 206.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…7a7abacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 56c | 179.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…9281backed No | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 49c | 155$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 52c | 148.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 51c | 126.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…83a2backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…3ce7backed Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda06…75d9backed Yes | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…4bc1backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8617backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…0e7abacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…4d2bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…94e9backed Yes | 54c | 37.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…69cabacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ace…241ebacked No | 52c | 29.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…697cbacked Yes | 50c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…4589backed Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.