Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump apologize to Elon before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09d83e097b39a92a0a1287c1cc12f4a070204d935b217c9398403e0e2c09dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 7c | 18,624$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 4c | 13,000$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.36 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 6c | 6,189$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 5c | 5,802$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.89 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…ed0ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,934$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 5c | 3,864$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…f05cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 3,377$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 6c | 2,681$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,537$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 9c | 2,248$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,974$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 10c | 1,966$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1fddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,780$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 1,753$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…01eebacked Yes | 9c | 1,692$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…64c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,625$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…e76dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,306$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 1,208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 4c | 1,113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,039$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…370fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…6e49backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4441backed Yes | 12c | 886.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 803.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 640$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 624.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 512.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 508.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3055…8348backed Yes | 8c | 505.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 6c | 468.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…52d1backed Yes | 8c | 369.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 10c | 258.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731f…5dd8backed Yes | 9c | 231.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…e1edbacked Yes | 7c | 211.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes | 7c | 198.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.