Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Elon talk by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0105af5c9df17293b3c5b325ef1bba5785289c2eede043129dcd155240d424d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed3e…7e75backed No | 1c | 20,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1aeebacked No | 0c | 7,126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 17c | 5,064$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,218.52 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 4,367$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 21c | 3,700$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.99 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd99d…a5a3backed No | 2c | 3,342$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +580.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…229abacked No | 1c | 3,001$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 56c | 2,158$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.26 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,794$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,505$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 17c | 1,504$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.28 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 1,421$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.59 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,305$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.17 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 18c | 697.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.66 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 14c | 693.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 14c | 678.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 65c | 574.98$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.48 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 45c | 540.35$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.69 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed No | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked Yes | 15c | 466.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 16c | 451$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.31 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 20c | 403.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.05 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 19c | 399.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.62 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed No | 79c | 380$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 15c | 333.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 15c | 330$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 22c | 266.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.12 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 18c | 266.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.05 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 260.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 79c | 226.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 219.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…15bcbacked Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 7c | 189.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 15c | 169.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 21c | 157$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…05f2backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked No | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…9e2ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 26c | 88.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed Yes | 23c | 82.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0299backed Yes | 20c | 74.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 20c | 71.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…9091backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…1149backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 78c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…c83abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd07c…feb7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.