Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2401dd16e4b9399e6f60166d104aaac962c05ff403980a2f0da5354ccd8bbc25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 5c | 8,979$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.72 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 3c | 6,756$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes | 4c | 5,813$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,154$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 5c | 2,186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,494$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,441$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,424$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 4c | 1,396$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,191$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 943.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 4c | 806.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Yes | 6c | 785.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 7c | 678.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1d9bbacked Yes | 3c | 600.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 5c | 419.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 7c | 402.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f8…e8b7backed Yes | 3c | 347.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b534backed Yes | 7c | 328.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 4c | 327.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…1075backed Yes | 7c | 311.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…ac13backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes | 3c | 294.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…5dbebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcf…0321backed Yes | 8c | 213.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…b42bbacked Yes | 7c | 146.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.