Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaaff18ea11338f81d1472ab3a3c8b14050c96d228db3d92b1af67df1da2d937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 5c | 2,175$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 5c | 1,532$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 5c | 678.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 3c | 541.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 5c | 444.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…31ddbacked Yes | 3c | 440$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 401$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 5c | 385.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 349$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…0fd1backed Yes | 3c | 321$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 8c | 254.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 5c | 249.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 219.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 6c | 204.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 194.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.