TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No37c6,850$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.311118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes59c6,568$3,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,851.0832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes61c6,326$3,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,886.018330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540b…c40dbacked Yes1c3,368$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes68c3,356$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2692857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No42c2,788$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.428836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No33c2,738$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.484734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes59c2,084$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No38c1,814$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.863619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d7d…d093backed Yes2c1,543$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No33c1,215$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.962751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes68c1,175$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No33c1,087$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.995440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes65c1,046$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.6717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca8…bfb2backed Yes41c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-79.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes59c980$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.61947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes63c915.75$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.818431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes45c865.53$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.053953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80e9…5105backed Yes44c679.96$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No46c669.41$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.169231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No46c613.02$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.0710244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c599.98$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No60c596.44$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.345040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b61…599cbacked Yes67c518.96$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed No58c500$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.831275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No32c496$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.744540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes56c472.06$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.3212539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No34c461.97$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.821752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No40c456.12$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.633240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c406.83$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.7950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No42c395.36$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.282142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes59c384$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.286434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes68c361.59$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.889442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes60c297.67$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.183571.4%25 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes59c274$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.662832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed No45c243.46$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.111662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes53c225.18$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes66c221.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No34c220.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes60c200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.834651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed Yes66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes44c199.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.996229%18 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8c…9f0fbacked No56c177$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+150.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x920d…bb46backed Yes56c176.37$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedd0…71e6backed Yes61c174.01$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes62c166.41$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.562560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…fb89backed No57c163$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No40c156.26$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.76650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d91…54a3backed Yes44c155$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.810232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcd…4fbdbacked Yes67c149.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5d…47d0backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb386…4874backed No58c148.45$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes49c144$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.796937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No45c141.2$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ef…dd27backed No40c138.18$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3016…63cdbacked Yes45c135.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6867…25b8backed Yes72c133.42$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.591631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick58cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb74b…c8eebacked Yes43c133$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes46c130.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No40c127$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.123754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc3…bfa3backed No54c125.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6a…b3a9backed No36c124.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+113.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x890d…c11fbacked Yes47c124.08$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9519031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12cd…2ea9backed No40c108.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b1…91acbacked No41c106.73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+73.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c104.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f73…3568backed No40c103.63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+64.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd301…c186backed No35c102.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516c…64aebacked Yes62c101.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb9…1d29backed No40c100.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2378…35a4backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6364…09a8backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07f1…1e32backed Yes62c98.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Yes69c98.65$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d5…2b51backed No41c97.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f4…5ed6backed Yes67c96.19$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf433…619dbacked Yes68c95.4$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes58c94.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.873828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1c…8fe6backed No40c94.15$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…6ab2backed No39c93.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3837…bf0abacked Yes63c93.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a47…5099backed No37c93.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No35c92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.82352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1f…dbdfbacked No41c89.94$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a8…4c28backed Yes62c89.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a2…1684backed No39c86.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…8e8ebacked No35c84.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde19…226bbacked No34c84.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc802…582dbacked No40c83.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1748…39a0backed No34c83.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c5…af88backed Yes47c83.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7873…48a8backed Yes61c83.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9f…ec7bbacked Yes48c81.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.