Movies · resolved market
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e735a5127d2e95f7f851690277c335ad9532ce6b24c496773e6e34bc36b716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Yes | 76c | 3,203$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 15c | 1,034$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 77c | 858.95$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 73c | 688.97$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 77c | 569.19$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a1…daa5backed Yes | 77c | 525$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 73c | 507.16$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 22c | 423.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 80c | 410.34$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 25c | 407.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6d…3953backed No | 18c | 320$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Yes | 80c | 250.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 75c | 217.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…3d73backed No | 24c | 204$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 185$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 180.92$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 78c | 180.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 78c | 161.91$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Yes | 77c | 149.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +89%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…2dbfbacked No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…2a76backed Yes | 76c | 124$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 78c | 115.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 19c | 87.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 71.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dc…bc71backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb47…2035backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 79c | 28.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…9dccbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…2e47backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4623…42ffbacked Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8e…7bd4backed Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…a198backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…e2d8backed Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Maria" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.