Weather · resolved market
2025 May hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf72b6271669ca741d6b421ab4993a62037553883cc5c3bbb0d25b1c85b3a08fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 22c | 18,639$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.63 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…5188backed Yes | 2c | 18,637$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 10,269$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…5dafbacked Yes | 1c | 6,636$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c39…9bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,544$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 16c | 6,522$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 6,078$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.14 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 2c | 5,555$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 16c | 5,225$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.92 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…c960backed No | 77c | 4,882$3,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…3381backed Yes | 1c | 4,767$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 19c | 4,652$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.77 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 4,651$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 24c | 3,635$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.19 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 20c | 3,444$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 2c | 3,156$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 78c | 3,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,883$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 18c | 2,546$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…1df4backed Yes | 1c | 2,312$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…a122backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,849$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,514$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 1,299$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,196$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 629.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 74c | 550$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…e4a8backed No | 79c | 516.55$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed Yes | 28c | 514.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 466.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…ab1cbacked Yes | 5c | 404.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 18c | 377.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…9a30backed Yes | 23c | 308.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 26c | 304.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 30c | 279.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 22c | 192.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3206…ea30backed No | 78c | 164$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 162.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 16c | 133.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…43d5backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 71c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 26c | 82.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…d80fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb828…3826backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.