Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Monkey' gross between 12-15m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5658d6719e4ad3c5b1a004b582ef680d93b50e73e070b3c13d53e3cd52a68213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed No | 4c | 2,371$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 64c | 1,873$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.3 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,820$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 51c | 1,310$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.46 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 40c | 988.12$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.28 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 45c | 973.92$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.03 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 43c | 805.4$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.53 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 49c | 655.24$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.44 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 13c | 600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 56c | 533.25$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.54 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 50c | 499.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.31 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 35c | 389.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.75 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 38c | 378.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.02 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 25c | 376$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 33c | 325.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 305.15$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.33 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 62c | 282.5$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 21c | 229.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 60c | 154.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 36c | 154.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 40c | 147.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 75c | 147$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 29c | 61.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 58c | 49.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Monkey' gross between 12-15m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Monkey' gross between 9-12m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Monkey' gross less than 9m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.